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rainlead

War In Syria: The Real Reason

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When he took office, Donald Trump did a complete about-face regarding his foreign policy with the middle east. Notably, he went from condemning Saudi Arabia to tacitly praising them. The US's commitment to regime change and meddling in the middle east makes little sense on the surface. There is no obvious strategic or economic value to these actions. The 'humanitarian' concerns are clearly a pretext. So what is the real reason for all of this?

The answer is the petrodollar, and the maintenance of US economic supremacy.

Saudi Arabia demands US dollars in exchange for oil. That's what truly gives the US dollar its value. That's what allows the US to have enormous trade deficits with other countries. For example, China sends its goods to the US in exchange for USD which can be spent on Saudi oil instead of US goods and services, creating a trade deficit advantageous to the US economy and its people. The rest of the world exports goods, the US exports dollars.

In return, Saudi Arabia gets the support of the world's strongest military and an incredible amount of leverage with which to direct it. If the Saudis chose a different exchange currency, the US economy would quickly collapse. Without Saudi oil to back it, the US dollar would inflate wildly. The US would not be able to sustain it's huge trade deficits, and the people would suffer.

The Saudi government is also in trouble. A huge proportion of Saudis rely on welfare, without that, a revolution from the underclass would be inevitable. The massive Saudi welfare state is sustained only by its oil exports. The Saudis have plenty of reasons to destabilize their middle eastern rivals and assert control over the region and its oil. Because of a largely useless populace, controlling and exporting more oil is the primary way that Saudi Arabia can expand its power and improve its economic situation.

The world's largest importer of oil, China, would obviously rather trade in Yuan. China has made agreements with Russia for the trade of oil, at the expense of Saudi Arabia. Unless the Saudis accept Yuan, they will lose a great deal of China's oil trade to Russia. China is poised to take international economic supremacy from the US, and they will if the Saudis accept Yuan.

To avoid this, the US must appease and assist Saudi Arabia against its rivals. Syrian insurgents are funded and supported by Saudi Arabia and the US in order to take control of more oil in the region. To maintain its precarious economic position, the US cannot allow China and Russia to control more of the world's oil and price it in Yuan.

Failure means a devastating economic collapse for the US including hyper-inflation and a severe reduction in imports. The US would be unable to fund its incredibly expensive military, and the US would lose its position as the world's foremost superpower.

Donald Trump has to make the difficult decision between catastrophic warfare and economic collapse, and it looks like he has already made his choice.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-05-30/the-untold-story-behind-saudi-arabia-s-41-year-u-s-debt-secret
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/11/china-will-compel-saudi-arabia-to-trade-oil-in-yuan--and-thats-going-to-affect-the-us-dollar.html
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-wagner/saudi-arabias-dark-role-i_b_3402447.html

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Hi @rainlead

Sorry, man... I don't think that petrol has anything to do with what constitutes of 93% history in the U.S.

Think of this: Does a drug cartel really just want to be the major and hopefully only distributor of heroine? Why that particular substance? It doesn't make sense.

No. I think it is the addiction to an illusory thing, the sensation of being in control, coupled with unearned... that drives those with an easy access to statist coercion mechanisms. It's all an illusion that they try to avoid facing at the cost of anyone's life, yours or mine the same.

Just that. Scared and unhappy people with sadistic principles trying to quench a bottomless thirst. Pure madness, that which you'd immediately spot if it affected anyone close to you (given, you cared about them.)

One strategy to keep your (already declining) power for a little while longer is to sabotage your enemies getting stronger. Silly, but when consequences aren't considered it's a 'sane go to' option.

Edited by barn
97 -> 93

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Certainly creating tension waiting to find out if we're off to war or not.

I wonder if Russia and China have a plan, even one that is going on behind the surface. China could easily sanction the West for bad behaviour.

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The OP is largely correct, however, strategic plans such as the war for dominance in the Middle East are multidimensional. There is never only one goal to be achieved. Destabilizing areas around Israel was a long term plan, to protect Israel and to make a coalition against it unlikely. Controlling the Suez canal enables you to control a big chunk of the global shipping routes. Control over the region also prevents Russia or Iran from building pipelines to Europe.

In case anyone was wondering why Trump suddenly changed his policy and his rhetoric, here is an important detail: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-allies-worry-that-federal-investigators-may-have-seized-recordings-made-by-his-attorney/2018/04/12/16d6345a-3e89-11e8-912d-16c9e9b37800_story.html
 

In short, Trump's attorney Michael D. Cohen was known for taping conversations with his clients and acquaintances. Since the raid we can assume that those are possession of the deep state now. With that kind of kompromat, the deep state now controls Trump. It was nice while it lasted but now the MAGA party is over.

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Perhaps it was time the world heard an even more specific Eisenhower-style speech from Donald Trump.

reference

p.s.  (He might still have the 'balls,' would be beneficial for the better part of humanity... For the love of all that's good, Please?)

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There's a simple solution, have all the politicians locked up in a field somewhere with nothing but knifes (the British might need to seek an exemplary permit btw to carry, aww... the irony, as rolling pins do tend to be less threatening) and let them sort it out amongst them. You'd be surprised how quickly things de-escalated.

Not in my name! No war, thank you f**ing much!

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