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Somewhere

Le Pen is mainly supported by the young

Here in the UK, older people were chastised for voting for Brexit last year, against the wishes of younger voters who would have to live with the consequences for longer. It looks like the establishment won't be able to use that line in the upcoming French election.

 

There's an interesting graphic from the Financial Times on this page: https://forecastingintelligence.org/2017/03/19/populist-politics-and-the-dutch-elections/showing that Le Pen gets much of her support from the young.

 

The FT's title on the original graphic was "Economic frustration drives young French voters towards Le Pen".

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There is probably a lot more driving them to La Pen than the economy.

As covered on the forum, due to the decline of people's access to resources (children are worse off than their parents) people are going to be forced to act conservatively, not due to philosophy, but circumstance. This happened before in the UK during the pre- and Victorian period, when the free-for-all-liberal attitudes of the 1700s combined with other factors led to a massive welfare burden and a population who had limited prospects due to a strain on resources. This produced tough people and inovation and tough people. The wealth they create produced soft, emotional slackers. Right now we are in the transition between the two again.

We also have aging populations, which are more likely to shift to conservative positions and change political affiliation. According to a Gallup survey, 71% of teenagers said their political beliefs were close to those of their parents. The same survey suggests that in aggregate half of teenagers who identify as liberal will end up identifying as conservative in later life. It's a largely one-way street.

Another factor is that leftists (who aren't liberal) have fewer children. In the UK if you look at fertility rates they are highest in the areas where UKIP gets a lot of votes, around 2.3, around replacement in fading Labout working class areas and becoming delightfully low in fake liberal areas. One of the lowest is Islington, the seat of Trotskyite Labout leader, Jez Corbyn and the epicenter of leftist thought at about 1.0 fertility rate. This is only by area, you can presume in these areas people who are conservative will be pushing above 2.3 and those who are leftists closer to 1.5. See here for a delve into fertility-rate by political affiliation.

As touched on above, you also have the phenomena of the left being the most sterile, authoritarian and increasingly absured. This is attracting the young. And among the older, increasingly they are leaving the left on a single issue. It's insanity. The left's insanity is one of our biggest assets, because most people who consider themselves left are moderate or have mistaken the left as liberal.

Then you have the increasingly obvious civilisation threatening problems of immigration, which becoming glaringly defined in government statistics from several countries that haven't banned them.

The only thing the left has got for the next few decades is immigration. It's no surprise then that Marcon and Corbyn have essentially called for open borders, the socialists in Germany have suggested giving all immigrant the right to vote, which they already do in Sweden.

As long as immigration is controlled, the left will have no option but to move towards more conservative positions. If its not, we'll be living in very different countries with the rich increasingly retreating into gated communities.

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There is probably a lot more driving them to La Pen than the economy.

 

As covered on the forum, due to the decline of people's access to resources (children are worse off than their parents) people are going to be forced to act conservatively, not due to philosophy, but circumstance. This happened before in the UK during the pre- and Victorian period, when the free-for-all-liberal attitudes of the 1700s combined with other factors led to a massive welfare burden and a population who had limited prospects due to a strain on resources. This produced tough people and inovation and tough people. The wealth they create produced soft, emotional slackers. Right now we are in the transition between the two again.

 

We also have aging populations, which are more likely to shift to conservative positions and change political affiliation. According to a Gallup survey, 71% of teenagers said their political beliefs were close to those of their parents. The same survey suggests that in aggregate half of teenagers who identify as liberal will end up identifying as conservative in later life. It's a largely one-way street.

 

Another factor is that leftists (who aren't liberal) have fewer children. In the UK if you look at fertility rates they are highest in the areas where UKIP gets a lot of votes, around 2.3, around replacement in fading Labout working class areas and becoming delightfully low in fake liberal areas. One of the lowest is Islington, the seat of Trotskyite Labout leader, Jez Corbyn and the epicenter of leftist thought at about 1.0 fertility rate. This is only by area, you can presume in these areas people who are conservative will be pushing above 2.3 and those who are leftists closer to 1.5. See here for a delve into fertility-rate by political affiliation.

 

As touched on above, you also have the phenomena of the left being the most sterile, authoritarian and increasingly absured. This is attracting the young. And among the older, increasingly they are leaving the left on a single issue. It's insanity. The left's insanity is one of our biggest assets, because most people who consider themselves left are moderate or have mistaken the left as liberal.

 

Then you have the increasingly obvious civilisation threatening problems of immigration, which becoming glaringly defined in government statistics from several countries that haven't banned them.

 

The only thing the left has got for the next few decades is immigration. It's no surprise then that Marcon and Corbyn have essentially called for open borders, the socialists in Germany have suggested giving all immigrant the right to vote, which they already do in Sweden.

 

As long as immigration is controlled, the left will have no option but to move towards more conservative positions. If its not, we'll be living in very different countries with the rich increasingly retreating into gated communities.

It is that old cycle: crisis times create great man, great man create easy times, easy times create weak man, which lead us to crisis.

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This just in:

Screenshot_at_2017_03_20_23_48_27.png

Under-25s in the UK more likely to vote 'Conservative', than 'Labour' (ICM 17-19 Mar 2017)

Also shows the only demographic Labour has is immigrants. Imagine my shock.

49% of students plan to vote Conservative, compared to 20% Labour.

Labour are primed to loose Wales, dropping ten percent of the vote share and handing it to the Conservatives.

Labour are primed to get half of the vote in Scotland they got in 2015, when they lost about half of the seats in the country.

Someone needs to update this graph. Little more than a year on, the loosing doesn't fit on it.

Liberal_Decline_in_Europe.png

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