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ACStudio

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  1. ACStudio

    forex trading

    Yes I would agree that you would get exactly what you paid or sold for. What else would you get? But if by "zero sum game" one wanted to imply that there must be a loser in order for there to be a winner then I would disagree.
  2. ACStudio

    forex trading

    I couldn't disagree more. Forex is a different animal...but as for stock trading or investing it is everything but a zero-sum game. Proof=it is possible for two opposing positions to both get what they want. I could sell a put in SPY...the person on the other side of that trade might be simply buying it to reduce margin requirements on some other put position or to hedge off risk in another position. It is possible for both parties to be satisfied with the outcome. Yes money moves around...but it's not "just" moving around.
  3. ACStudio

    forex trading

    stocks/options Hmmm...what is success? Is it just P/L? Is it outperforming a long SPY position or outperforming a short SPY position. Is it outperforming your brother-in-law's IRA? Could it also be learning how to manage your own finances in a way that will make you a better decision maker for the rest of your life? Could success be getting your money away from the big bank machine and not paying someone for mediocre returns while creating a risk profile that you yourself would never agree to in any other aspect of your life? Insight 1 Nobody knows anything. Unless they are telling you they don't know, they don't know. Once you accept the fact that market pricing is efficient and that market direction is random (minus the positive drift of risk free rates) you will be free from the influence of all the chattering monkeys. "Efficient Market Hypothesis" in a nutshell suggests that all known information is priced into the market, and with today's technology this happens very quickly, usually within minutes or less. Insight 2 It's not gambling and it's not rigged. Proof= you get to choose which side of the table you want to be on. Unlike a casino where you can only take one side of a bet or the payout always favors the house. In an efficiently traded market with random price movement your odds on any particular naked stock position are always wrapped around 50/50 and you get to choose your order size, entry and exit. Insight 3 If you can book your own airline tickets online you can manage your own money. The fees available to the retail trader are as good and sometimes better than institutional traders and the front end technology is better than what most institutional traders use. Money managers for retirement funds etc are more concerned with litigation risk than whether you make money or not. They get paid either way and as long as they perform at some level near what everyone else did they will keep their jobs. There is no data or evidence to suggest that a financial adviser or money manager can add Alpha. Their success or failure is a random bell curve distribution and has nothing to do with knowing anything. Insight 4 Take all the charts, candlesticks, fibonacci lines, stock gurus, proprietary systems, black boxes, whatever and throw them all in the dumpster. There is no evidence that shows any of that has anything more than a random bell curve distribution of success and failure. Proof= if any of these things worked with anything greater than 50% reliability, someone with a whole lot more money than you and teams of MIT graduates working for them would have already soaked up the edge and it would be gone in 2 seconds. "So what's a new subscriber to do?" I'm glad you asked. Most of the big brokerages have pretty good front end technology that allows you to put through trades in a funded account. And most of these have some sort of "Paper Trading" feature that allows you to learn the technology in real time or with 15 minute delay so you can learn the technology. They usually have tutorials or videos to walk you through every step. Most of them allow you to create an account and do the paper trading without ever depositing any money. Now that your slingin stocks like a pit trading T-Rex...how do you overcome the 50/50 randomness of direction? You could just do like your adviser or money manager does and buy the age/risk tolerance appropriate percentage of indexes. X% of SPY,QQQ or IWM for stocks, X% of TLT for bonds, X% of GLD, SLV, USO for commodities, X% of EEM for emerging markets, etc etc. and let it sit until you retire or die. You'll at least outperform your neighbor Tim's IRA because you have no fees. But still you are basically riding the wave of randomness and maybe outperforming the inflation rate as long as the market stays positive and rides the positive drift of risk free rates. The one statistically proven thing you can do to increase your odds of success is to (ready for it?) cap your upside and reduce your cost basis. Every Bob, John and Cindy has a long position with unlimited upside potential. The problem with that is this...if your portfolio has the ability to gain 50% that means it also has the potential to lose 50%. So here is an example of what you can do to increase your probability of profit, say you are holding 100 shares of SPY (S and P etf) you bought at 292$ per share and sell the 295 call option that expires in around 45 days against it for 2$ and change which costs no additional capital. Now you own it for less than 290$ per share and now your probability of profit is wrapped around 60%. But you give up anything above that call you sold plus 2$. But you don't mind because you know that options pricing is based on probability models that are insanely accurate and as with any type of insurance (which is what they are in a way) the pricing tends to favor the seller (which is you). And although the options pricing model suggests that there is only 30% chance that SPY will be above 295$ in 45 days in practice it really closer to 25% which is the edge given to the seller as incentive for taking the risk and giving up the upside. To take it a step further maybe you do this 8-10 times in a year each time lowering your cost basis and your risk and always increasing your probability of profit. The above strategy is a "covered call" or "Buy-Write" strategy. It's not a secret or some magical thing. It is the first thing I would show anyone who is wanting to learn how to invest for themselves. There is much more one can do as you might guess but everything you need to know is on the internet and it's all free. I'm happy to discuss anything related...feel free to ask.
  4. The LLC can have insurance on their autos and other insurance types. Also what you have described sounds like a "close corporation" https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/close_corporation which doesn't always shield owners from liability, see "piercing corporate veil" https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/piercing_the_corporate_veil obviously not my area of expertise but a quick google search shows some free market solutions. One could create a million "what if" scenarios but these things can usually be sorted out without coercive force.
  5. If I understand your question correctly, yes. The link I provided shows the time and quantities of the fills for TSLA. Or you can watch in real time on most retail trading platforms. But to put it simply, the concern someone would have trying to cheat their client is that if they fill an order and bill it at a price higher than what it trades at for the rest of the day then the client can easily calculate that they have been had. To take it a step further my concern with that scenario lies with why a person is phoning in an order and paying a huge vig for a broker assisted trade. Quick story. I was talking to a guy the other day who fancies himself a pretty savvy investor because he keeps up to date on all the hot gurus and his long/long portfolio has made him feel like the Wolf of Main St along with every other genius that happened to have their sails at full mast when the winds blew their way. And something he said caught my attention. It almost sounded like he said he called his guy. “I’m sorry, who did you call?” I asked. He was calling his broker to make stock purchases. So I pull out my fancy 4 year old iPhone barely protected by a not so life-proof case and 6 button pushes later I show him the same order put through on my phone and it’s 5$ to execute, round trip. He’s pushing the outside of 74 so his eyes glaze over like I just flashed him schematics for a night landing on a Russian aircraft carrier but now he’s interested enough now to turn up his hearing aid and start a game of 20 questions. The point of the story is this. With the technology available today there is no reason to pay a someone to handle your investments. There is no data to suggest that financial experts add Alpha yet they soak up 7-12% of our GDP depending on who you ask. We are forced to find ways to protect our money from inflation taxation then told it takes an expert to do so despite the fact that none of them have any idea of how to add value as their primary concern is billing the customer and avoiding litigation...not helping the consumer.
  6. IOC is just a time frame designation for an order type so I'm not sure how that enters into it. But to answer your question...assuming there is 100k liquidity offered at 419.70 and you can get filled at that price the customer will remember you by name next time they talk to your boss and maybe you get that bonus to buy granny that Trans Am she's been hinting about or be a next step player and pick up that custom 2 button navy from Jorge, who pronounces it "nahhvy", down on the Ave that really sets off that power tie you been ratholin' for a special day. And let me tell you why. Because if you sell them your inventory at 420 or bill the fill at 420 and the stock never trades 100k at 420 the company will get a phone call or have a lawsuit on their hands from an angry customer and you will most likely lose your job and be lucky to be selling timeshares in Florida to a couple of newlyweds named Bryce and Lacey by next spring. Times, fills and quantities are all public knowledge. https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/time-sales I'm not suggesting it never happens but free market solutions are already in place to protect the consumer. The transparency and technology available to the retail customer has never been better than it is right now. I would suggest that every person who has the mental capacity to create an acct and post on this forum is more than equipped to manage their own investments. Anybody that tells you they can do it better than you is trying to sell you something. I'm here to liberate the masses from financial anxiety and chew bubblegum....and I'm all outta bubblegum.
  7. Of course getting rich is the intention, but the risk is still there. If I buy or sell enough shares to move the price of a stock there is no guarantee that it will stay there or that the liquidity will even be available to close them out for profit. The risk is still there just like anybody else. And the fact that there is somebody willing to take the other side of that position is the proof. If it was a risk free trade there would be no taker on the other side. The counter party to any action like that has the ability to spread off the risk to an extent but risk is still there for everyone involved. IOC (immediate or cancel) is a TIF (time in force) designation. Not sure what that has to do with price improvement for retail traders but I'm happy to discuss it.
  8. Not necessarily, often shares or options held by board members or other insiders are on a lock up and can't be liquidated until some certain date and everybody knows what that date is. But for positions not locked they still have to file with SEC if they are buying or selling stock or options above a certain number. And that is public knowledge as well...you can view all filings from any number of websites and the EDGAR tools on the SEC website. Then you have the problem of liquidity. Just because you have 1 million shares of XYZ it doesn't mean you can walk over to your bloomberg terminal and hit the bid and get a fill. You would want to find a buyer or buyers to take the other side of the action...often a bank or some entity that can take the position and spread off the risk without ever going through an exchange. So in reality the small stock holder or worker can be far more nimble. Not suggesting it doesn't happen occasionally on some scale but it's not as easy as it sounds. Markets makers are incentivized to make markets, but are not required. Just to be clear. Because you are offering 100 shares of XYZ at a price, and it may be the best price across the exchanges, doesn't mean you will get a fill. If the market moves away from your price because there are no sellers you will not be filled until you either change your price or the market comes back. They may or may not want to unload inventory, For examples see any "flash crash" when the market makers just stepped aside. That's not really front running in the true sense but anyway, the reason nobody cares is because if you call your bank and put in a "market order" for 100 shares of XYZ instead of a "limit order" you don't get to complain about your fill. You'll be lucky if you get filled at anything under the high of the day. And if they are selling you their inventory who cares...all you should care about is your fill price. And that can be determined by you using a "limit order". A fair question for anyone with 2 brain cells. But for someone who actually trades it is of no concern. GS couldn't manipulate something if they wanted to. More notional value goes through S/P in the first 15 minutes of an average day than goes through Vegas in a year. The only stocks, futures or ETF's big enough for them to want to manipulate are so efficiently traded that even if they they could push the bids up for a couple of minutes the risk is still there and they could lose like anybody else. And forget about "front running". Nobody is going to front run your market order for 100 shares. They can't. Self directed investors who use market orders and get filled, get price improvement about 30% of the time for stocks and around 25% of the time for options. That means that 30% of the stock "market orders" to buy a stock get it cheaper than they were willing to pay, and the same for sellers. This is a direct result of high frequency traders or market makers or liquidity providers...whatever you want to call them. They are being demonized by the likes of GS, BOA,etc because they do not favor the big guy trying to get filled on 100,000 share lot of AMZN. Most brokerages do not inventory stock. It's a "fill em and bill em" business model. If your brokerage does inventory stock (there are a few that do I guess) Then I'm not sure it would matter as long as you got filled at your price or better. And as far as their opinion on whether it will go down or not...who cares? Trust me, no one knows what any of these stocks are going to do. What they believe is irrelevant, in fact I'll pretty much take the other side of what anybody wants to do because that's how sure I am that "nobody knows nuthin'"
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